Brexit: Can British Economy Bear the Impact?
Brexit will weigh on the British economy in all cases but the agreement negotiated by Theresa May limit the damage while leaving the European Union without agreement would plunge the country into the crisis, argued Wednesday several estimates official.
Pound collapse of 25%, unemployment skyrocketing to 7.5% and inflation to 6.5%, plunge of 30% of real estate prices ... A Brexit without agreement would cause a huge shock to the UK economy, warned the Bank of England in its assessment of different exit scenarios from the EU.
In this worst-case scenario, British gross domestic product (GDP) is slashed from 7.8% to 10.5% by 2024.Bank governor Mark Carney of Canada, who is regularly accused of wanting to scare his scenarios, told the press that his job was precisely to "prepare for the worst".
Shortly before, a government report had estimated GDP loss at 9.3% in 15 years. He insisted, however, that Prime Minister Theresa May's agreement with the EU, but decried to the heart of her Conservative Party, would limit the scrap by costing 3.9% of GDP (1, 2% to 3.8% by 2024, according to the BoE).
The executive figures assume that the UK will be able to conclude all the free trade agreements it hopes for, the report says, stressing, however, that these projections need to be made with "tweezers" because of the uncertainties inherent in this type of economic analysis ".
This avalanche of numbers has comfortably brought comfort to Theresa May, who is struggling to convince the country and MEPs that her agreement is "the best" and "the only possible one".
"This analysis does not show that we will be poorer in the future," she told the elected officials, that she tries with difficulty to convince to vote on December 11 for the divorce agreement concluded after 17 months difficult negotiations. "It shows that we will go better with this agreement".
But within two weeks of the vote, Ms. May is far from having the required number of votes and critics wiped out again Wednesday reminded her of the resistance that awaits her. "It is now clear that Parliament will not support this plan," Labor opposition leader Jeremy Corbyn told him, saying it was "time to work on another plan".
In addition to Labor, Theresa May's North-Irish ally, the small Unionist party DUP, Conservative MPs in favor of a hard Brexit, the Europhiles of the Liberal Democratic Party and Scottish independence deputies oppose the agreement.
To convince her fellow citizens, Ms. May embarked on a tour of the country that led her Wednesday afternoon near Glasgow, Scotland's largest city. "This is an agreement that is good for Scottish employers and will protect jobs," she said, particularly trying to reassure the highly sensitive issue of fisheries in Scotland.
On the eve of her visit, Scottish Prime Minister Nicola Sturgeon, leader of the pro-independence party SNP, lambasted the agreement, citing a study published by her government that would make Scots "poorer", and calling it "unacceptable". Theresa May and her main supporters hope that once faced with the vote, parliamentarians will be reasonable.
A poll released Wednesday by the tabloid Daily Mail, spectacularly moved from militant europhobia to a very moderate position on the occasion of a change of editor, came to comfort Ms. May: 52% of the 1,030 people interviewed online by The Survation Institute thinks that its agreement is the best possible, compared to 19% who think the opposite.
But at the same time, 48% of respondents call for a second referendum (against 34%). This solution has received the unexpected support of John McDonnel, Labor's economic affairs officer, as Labor has so far officially opposed it, such as Theresa May.